The Daytona 500
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series kicks off the 2010 season with the 52nd running of the Daytona 500. NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet is back by popular demand for the seventh year of providing you with the most thorough and accurate NASCAR fantasy prognostication. We took a long look at past performances, trends, and Speedweek sessions to shed a light on how the field will finish Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 14; 1:19 p.m./et
The Track: Daytona International Speedway
Daytona International Raceway is a 2.5-mile tri-oval with extreme 31 degree banking on the corners. The intense banking allows drivers to run wide-open nearly the entire way around the track. As a result of the incredible speeds NASCAR has made all Sprint Cup Series races at the track restrictor plate races. The plate on the engine limits air-intake thus reducing horsepower and slowing top-end speeds.
Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK
As is the case with all restrictor plate races the field always becomes bunched in groups. These freight-train like packs cruise around the track just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat tire or get loose to cause a massive accident. It isn't IF the big crash will happen it is WHEN. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable carnage they have a great chance to finish inside the top 20.
Qualifying Procedures:
54 cars will attempt to qualify for starting spots 3-39 during Thursday's Gatorade Duel races. The top two spots were locked in on Feb. 6th when Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had the top speeds during qualifying for the Gatorade Duels. Starting positions 3-39 will be determined by order of finish during the Gatorade Duel races and the final four spots will go to Sprint Cup Series past champions or cars that had fast speeds on Budweiser Pole day, but didn't fare well during the Gatorade Duel races.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Smoke has brought the fire at Daytona lately. He has won three of the last eight races at the track and has looked fast during Speedweeks. He is a great pick.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion. He won the 2006 Daytona 500 and has been pretty dominant (nine top 10 finishes in 16 career starts) at Daytona during his career.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch was awesome at Daytona in 2008 (fourth and first place finishes) but didn't quite have the same luck at the track last season. He appears to be more focused this year and a top five finish won't surprise us.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth had one of his only bright spots of the 2009 season when he won the Daytona 500. He could take the checkers again on Sunday.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch mowed the lawn at Daytona during the Bud Shootout on Saturday, but he was great at Daytona in 2008 and is a solid pick this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards is a solid restrictor plate driver and was great in Saturday's Budweiser Shootout. He will be a top 10 pick most weekends in 2010 including this one.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five career wins at Daytona, but he struggled at the track lately. He is worth using as the second driver on your team this week, but don't anchor your team around the No. 24.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has cracked the top 10 in five of his seven career starts at Daytona. He should be near the top 10 once again when the checkers fly on Sunday.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has finished in the top 10 in three of the past five full-length races at Daytona. He is a very solid pick again this weekend.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya had a breakout season in 2009 and could challenge for the championship this year. He is a great No. 2 driver in most fantasy leagues.
11 to 20
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick won the Budweiser Shootout last week, but we don't like him to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has just one top 10 finish at Daytona during his career. There are better weekends to use the No. 11 car.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers was one of the surprises of the 2009 NASCAR season. He may still be flying under the radar in some leagues. This is the time to grab him before his value increases.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has been solid in restrictor plate races during his career and there is no race in the circuit that he wants to win more than this one.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin is off to a good start with quick times during Speedweeks, but Daytona isn't a style of race that he likes. We advise saving him for another race.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton had some solid finishes late in the 2009 season after struggling during a bulk of the year. He should finish around 15th on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2003, but he hasn't had much luck other than that race at the famous speedway. In 14 career starts at Daytona he has just three top 10 finishes.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan's average finish at Daytona is 14th. This is a great weekend to use the No. 6 car as a top 20 finish should be expected.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano no longer has the yellow stripe on his bumper and should be a top 20 driver for most of this season.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray won at Daytona in 2007 and finished third in this year's Budweiser Shootout. He has been a top 20 car during all of Speedweeks and should finish inside the top 20.
21 to 30
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman won the 2008 edition of the Daytona 500, but that was his last top 15 finish at the famous speedway. He isn't much more than a third driver in most fantasy leagues this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has had success at Daytona in the past. He is worth using as a fourth driver on most fantasy teams.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski takes over the No. 12 car permanently this season and big things are expected from the talented rookie. We predict he will have a season more successful than the one Joey Logano had last year.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose proved in 2009 he isn't afraid of anything. He is a great sleeper driver this season.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann was a top 20 driver for most of 2009. He is a decent option as a fourth driver in most fantasy leagues.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr: Truex moves to Michael Waltrip Racing this season. We expect he will have an adjustment period with his new team.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has cracked the top 15 in six of the last eight races at Daytona. We like his chances to crack the top 30, but we don't see him breaking into the top 15.
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger takes over the famous No. 43 car this season. He will be a top 30 finisher most weekends.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. hopefully learned a lot last season. If he didn't he could be out of the No. 77 before the end of the year.
No. 51 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip once was a Daytona 500 Champion. That was lots of left-hand turns ago.
31 to 35
No. 26 Boris Said: Said has had past success at Daytona. If you are looking for a deep, deep sleeper he may be your man.
No. 49 David Gilliland: Gilliland has never had any fear of restrictor plate racing. He could crack the top 30 with some luck.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard is way too inconsistent to be an option.
No. 38 Robert Richardson Jr.: The former QB at SMU will split a ride with David Gilliland and will struggle. He isn't an option.
No. 34 John Andretti: Lil' John is guaranteed a spot in the race and should crack the top 35.
Field Fillers
No. 90 Casey Mears
No. 21 Bill Elliott
No. 71 Bobby Labonte
No. 78 Regan Smith
No. 82 Scott Speed
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 37 Travis Kvapil
No. 32 Reed Sorenson
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 92 Mike Wallace
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 36 Mike Bliss
No. 46 Terry Cook
No. 97 Jeff Fuller
No. 75 Derrike Cope
No. 27 Kirk Shelmerdine
No. 57 Norm Benning
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
Sleepers:
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2. David Ragan
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series kicks off the 2010 season with the 52nd running of the Daytona 500. NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet is back by popular demand for the seventh year of providing you with the most thorough and accurate NASCAR fantasy prognostication. We took a long look at past performances, trends, and Speedweek sessions to shed a light on how the field will finish Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 14; 1:19 p.m./et
The Track: Daytona International Speedway
Daytona International Raceway is a 2.5-mile tri-oval with extreme 31 degree banking on the corners. The intense banking allows drivers to run wide-open nearly the entire way around the track. As a result of the incredible speeds NASCAR has made all Sprint Cup Series races at the track restrictor plate races. The plate on the engine limits air-intake thus reducing horsepower and slowing top-end speeds.
Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK
As is the case with all restrictor plate races the field always becomes bunched in groups. These freight-train like packs cruise around the track just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat tire or get loose to cause a massive accident. It isn't IF the big crash will happen it is WHEN. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable carnage they have a great chance to finish inside the top 20.
Qualifying Procedures:
54 cars will attempt to qualify for starting spots 3-39 during Thursday's Gatorade Duel races. The top two spots were locked in on Feb. 6th when Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had the top speeds during qualifying for the Gatorade Duels. Starting positions 3-39 will be determined by order of finish during the Gatorade Duel races and the final four spots will go to Sprint Cup Series past champions or cars that had fast speeds on Budweiser Pole day, but didn't fare well during the Gatorade Duel races.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Smoke has brought the fire at Daytona lately. He has won three of the last eight races at the track and has looked fast during Speedweeks. He is a great pick.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion. He won the 2006 Daytona 500 and has been pretty dominant (nine top 10 finishes in 16 career starts) at Daytona during his career.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch was awesome at Daytona in 2008 (fourth and first place finishes) but didn't quite have the same luck at the track last season. He appears to be more focused this year and a top five finish won't surprise us.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth had one of his only bright spots of the 2009 season when he won the Daytona 500. He could take the checkers again on Sunday.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch mowed the lawn at Daytona during the Bud Shootout on Saturday, but he was great at Daytona in 2008 and is a solid pick this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards is a solid restrictor plate driver and was great in Saturday's Budweiser Shootout. He will be a top 10 pick most weekends in 2010 including this one.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five career wins at Daytona, but he struggled at the track lately. He is worth using as the second driver on your team this week, but don't anchor your team around the No. 24.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has cracked the top 10 in five of his seven career starts at Daytona. He should be near the top 10 once again when the checkers fly on Sunday.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has finished in the top 10 in three of the past five full-length races at Daytona. He is a very solid pick again this weekend.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya had a breakout season in 2009 and could challenge for the championship this year. He is a great No. 2 driver in most fantasy leagues.
11 to 20
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick won the Budweiser Shootout last week, but we don't like him to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has just one top 10 finish at Daytona during his career. There are better weekends to use the No. 11 car.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers was one of the surprises of the 2009 NASCAR season. He may still be flying under the radar in some leagues. This is the time to grab him before his value increases.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has been solid in restrictor plate races during his career and there is no race in the circuit that he wants to win more than this one.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin is off to a good start with quick times during Speedweeks, but Daytona isn't a style of race that he likes. We advise saving him for another race.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton had some solid finishes late in the 2009 season after struggling during a bulk of the year. He should finish around 15th on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2003, but he hasn't had much luck other than that race at the famous speedway. In 14 career starts at Daytona he has just three top 10 finishes.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan's average finish at Daytona is 14th. This is a great weekend to use the No. 6 car as a top 20 finish should be expected.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano no longer has the yellow stripe on his bumper and should be a top 20 driver for most of this season.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray won at Daytona in 2007 and finished third in this year's Budweiser Shootout. He has been a top 20 car during all of Speedweeks and should finish inside the top 20.
21 to 30
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman won the 2008 edition of the Daytona 500, but that was his last top 15 finish at the famous speedway. He isn't much more than a third driver in most fantasy leagues this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has had success at Daytona in the past. He is worth using as a fourth driver on most fantasy teams.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski takes over the No. 12 car permanently this season and big things are expected from the talented rookie. We predict he will have a season more successful than the one Joey Logano had last year.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose proved in 2009 he isn't afraid of anything. He is a great sleeper driver this season.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann was a top 20 driver for most of 2009. He is a decent option as a fourth driver in most fantasy leagues.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr: Truex moves to Michael Waltrip Racing this season. We expect he will have an adjustment period with his new team.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has cracked the top 15 in six of the last eight races at Daytona. We like his chances to crack the top 30, but we don't see him breaking into the top 15.
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger takes over the famous No. 43 car this season. He will be a top 30 finisher most weekends.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. hopefully learned a lot last season. If he didn't he could be out of the No. 77 before the end of the year.
No. 51 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip once was a Daytona 500 Champion. That was lots of left-hand turns ago.
31 to 35
No. 26 Boris Said: Said has had past success at Daytona. If you are looking for a deep, deep sleeper he may be your man.
No. 49 David Gilliland: Gilliland has never had any fear of restrictor plate racing. He could crack the top 30 with some luck.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard is way too inconsistent to be an option.
No. 38 Robert Richardson Jr.: The former QB at SMU will split a ride with David Gilliland and will struggle. He isn't an option.
No. 34 John Andretti: Lil' John is guaranteed a spot in the race and should crack the top 35.
Field Fillers
No. 90 Casey Mears
No. 21 Bill Elliott
No. 71 Bobby Labonte
No. 78 Regan Smith
No. 82 Scott Speed
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 37 Travis Kvapil
No. 32 Reed Sorenson
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 92 Mike Wallace
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 36 Mike Bliss
No. 46 Terry Cook
No. 97 Jeff Fuller
No. 75 Derrike Cope
No. 27 Kirk Shelmerdine
No. 57 Norm Benning
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
Sleepers:
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2. David Ragan
